Corona Virus

Top job you Guy's and Gal's did, here's hoping no second wave materialises over the winter

 

I think it won't take until winter in Manchester!

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...hester-news/it-out-hand-only-invited-18790703

 

Just for info.........wife had swab test a month ago or so which showed positive. More recently, due to a new role within the NHS, she has just received today test results for antibody test.....which showed positive. This confirms our suspicions that we all had Covid 19 in mid March. Now we know she has had it and has antibodies, I'm going to let her sleep indoors again.

 

She is obviously stupid. She says she will now have to visit relatives at THEIR houses. At this moment in time there is a type of lockdown in Greater Manchester which does not allow that.

 

I found this disheartening but unfortunately not altogether surprising since COVID is more flu-like than a disease like smallpox from my understanding.

I found the graph about rising rates per 100,000 in Spain, France, the UK, Germany, and Italy interesting. If I'm reading the graph correctly, Spain looks horrific at what estimates to be 80-85 cases per 100,000. To put it in perspective, check out these graphs. "Lucky" Mr. Sandi and me--our state of Arizona is high on the U.S. list. 2,697 per 100,000 according to statista and 2,705 as reported in the NY Times. We live in Pima County which has a rate of "only" 1,926 / 100,000. Yikes. Maybe we should move to Spain. Or the UK. Fortunately and thankfully, our total number of daily cases is (finally) starting to go down at least.

 

I thought Ted Nugent was a twat when I saw him live at Reading Festival in 1976!

 

@Sandi. That's a case rate of 2.7%, of which 10% likely to become severe and 10% of those die. These figures are improving all the time. You don't need to move anywhere......just keep observing the oft stated rules......keep your distance, wash your hands, wear your mask when in public. The number of cases will go up as they are testing more people each day. The media are having a field day at your expense......

 

In that case, based on comparative stats I'm seeing from other countries, it would seem that no place else on the planet has anything to worry about! Re. more testing, I've been following the positivity rate changes as more people are tested. People around where I live have until recently had to be on death's door to get a COVID test. Geez, at that point, why bother? Of course positivity will be high under those circumstances. But as testing is more widespread and people who are asymptomatic can elect to be tested, it seems to me that the positivity rate is at least somewhat more meaningful. Testing everyone or testing true random samples at appropriate power would be the most helpful of all but I don't see that ever happening here. Thanks for your input, Thripster.

But, hey, what if I WANT to move somewhere!? August was our hottest month on record with nearly every day exceeding 105ºF. I do have to say I'm quite used to it now and have acclimated nicely. But I have had lots of practice. Today I went for a ride at noon and the temp was 97ºF and it felt quite balmy.

 

@Sandi. So sorry, yes you must move wherever you wish. Southern hemisphere would be my bet in the short term.

 

Headline in the Private Eye (28th August - 10 September 2020 issue). . Page 7 in highlighted box entitled number crunching: '62.4 Coronavirus deaths per 100,000 population in the UK, also the biggest of any G7 nation.'
Firstly, (same caveats apply as previously regarding the difficulties by those that have suffered/treated the disease) that figure is tiny being 0.0624%.
Secondly, the UK has been including deaths of people that have died with Coronavirus and not necessarily died of Coronavirus - each country uses differing criteria for recording deaths and so to claim that it is 'also the biggest of any G7 nation.' shows an incompetent grasp of the responsible use of statistics and/or blatant political mischief.

By comparison:-

In 2014/2015 there were 34,300 deaths attributable to influenza. Population of 65 million. That is a death rate of 0.0528%.
In 2016/2017 there were 17,592 deaths attributable to influenza. Population of 66 million. That is a death rate of 0.0272%.

You can draw your own conclusions. Let us hope that there is not a winter surge or a mutation which causes the Coronavirus rates to increase significantly.

Source of data:-

Surveillance of influenza and other
respiratory viruses in the UK:
Winter 2017 to 2018 (Public Health England).

https://assets.publishing.service.g...espiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2017_to_2018.pdf

 

Thripster, would you please clarify when you say 2014/2015 and 2016/2017, does that mean data for all of 2014 and 2015 combined and 2016 and 2017 combined? Is it whatever is considered "flu season"? If so, what is that timeframe? I find that confusing. My understanding is that Covid data it is from 2020 only so it this point it covers about eight months. I'm not sure the comparison is apples to apples.

 

Hi Sandi. Thanks for your interest. 2014 to 2015 represents a year's worth of data. Similarly for 2016/2017. It just so happens that the data is collected either side of year end/beginning. I chose to give a couple of illustrations to show best and worse cases. All the data is available by using the link provided. The key point, rather than get too absorbed in minutiae, is that deaths due to Coronavirus in terms of numbers is small. No disrespect to those who have suffered from it or who are dealing with it.

 

Generally found PE very good over recent months; MD's reporting has been very good I felt - critical of the Govt when they deserved it, but also acknowledging their rare successes.

Surprised they are still using that figure as it was recalculated a few weeks ago to actually reflect reality better - for example, the Economist is using much better data now.

But hey, I've long since ceased being surprised by shoddy journalism!

DS

 

Agree Doc - MD's concise critiques very useful.

 

I must admit I have got fed up of looking at the stats. I can hopefully leave that to those that are making the decision on our behalf. In my mind all I'm thinking about is a time when we have not got the virus in our societies and we get to stop all of the mitigation activities that are ruling our lifes at the moment. I know it is a bit of a pipe dream that we can get back to normal, but here is hoping

 

Number of deaths for leading causes of death (US):

• Heart disease: 647,457 = 23%
• Cancer: 599,108 = 21%
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 = 6%
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201 = 5.6%
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383 = 5%
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404 = 4.3%
• Diabetes: 83,564 = 3%
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 = 2%
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 = 1.8%
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173 = 1.6%

Source: US Center for Disease Control 2017 (most recent available)

*Covid-19 related death rate in the US = 3% (I suspect this number is high due to the fact there is a government subsidy to the hospitals for every case of Covid-19)

My opinion: Covid-19 is being used as a political football and power grab. Let's see what ludicrous dictates the minions will follow and how far we can push them -what freedoms will they willingly give up without a word, much less a fight. Let's do as the Muslims do to their women and steal their individuality by forcing them to wear masks.

Bonus for tyrants: If it hurts the economy, it hurts President Trump and that's a good thing as far as his opponents are concerned.

Problem: The economy in the US has almost fully recovered from the initial dip. Unfortunately it's the giant corporations like WM and Amazon who are benefitting and the small businesses are being shut down by state governors and other politicians (who never miss a pay check) and the owners and their employees are the one's suffering.

I do not deny Covid-19 is a problem, but I believe it is no more a problem than the "common" flu. It has been blown out of proportion to "fundamentally change" the world and in particular the world's strongest nation, the USA. I may be wrong, time will tell.

 

I think you're missing the point re stats. The reason the percentages are down is because of the precautions that each nation has taken. The fact is that this is a virulent virus and if we all just carried on as we were at the beginning of the year then those stats would be significantly higher, to say nothing of those that would survive but with significant health issues potentially for the rest of their lives.

 

It's the great thing about the great nations in which we live, Helmut -we are free to think and believe as we like -for a little while longer, anyway.

 

The county I live in got $100 large (million) to aid small business, they have yet to distribute any of the aid.