Corona Virus

From good old Bbc... “But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticised the government's communication strategy and lack of support for low wage citizens. He said, despite being 70, he would not follow any advice to self-isolate.“

 

This is a link to the Imperial College model the government is using to plan its Covid-19 strategy.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

it’s an interesting read, and helps to understand the approach. In summary there are two alternative strategies:

a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection,

Or

(b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely.

Their conclusions?

“In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”

“We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.”

The major difference tactically between the two is that mitigation keeps the schools and universities open, whereas suppression requires the schools and universities to be closed too. And both strategies require flexible interventions, ie on-off actions, for at least 18 months.

So I anticipate that the schools will close at Easter and not re-open until September.

 

A meaty overnight read. Not just closure but expect some cadence braking I.e. measures switched on and off as they measure the incidence of disease through late summer to make sure it never takes off beyond our ability to cope.

It is essential we all play our part just as you would bale out a lifeboat.....

We need the Chancellor to now put hard cash meat on the bones of business support plans. This is going to run until a vaccine appears.

 

Here in France the quarantine just got more serious.

1. All schools, nurseries, universities, colleges closed for the foreseeable future:

2. All bars, cafes and restaurants closed;

3. All borders closed;

4. All non- essential shops closed;

In other words everything is shut barring, banks, doctors and hospitals; plus very limited personal travel. "We are at war" said the President last night.

 

Without being too cocky (and regretting it), in my early forties and decent healthy active lifestyle (including regular wine cleansing) I'm certainly not worried about myself so much. It's the bunch of ol' stubborn hairy ass bikers I'm worried about. Who am I going to argue with if this gets out of hands..??

Yep, enjoying it to the fullest with everything it has to offer, including bog roll stock pilling idiots.
On a serious note, my bike is already in Czech so if they close the borders, I may have to shoot my way through to reunite with it!

 

The Wuhan Institute of Virology is a real place, and the exact origin of the novel coronavirus is still a mystery, with researchers racing since the outbreak began to figure it out. But already, virologists who’ve parsed the genome and infectious disease experts who study coronaviruses say they have enough evidence the virus is brand new and came from nature. A large group of them, citing genome analyses from multiple countries, recently affirmed in The Lancet that the virus originated in wildlife.

 

Forgive me if this is due to my feeble maths ability this morning, but according to yesterdays figures approx 1540 cases of confirmed Corona virus in UK with 50 deaths... is that not a mortality rate of 3.2% which is a lot higher than the 1% that had been widely quoted in the media.

So if that carries on at 3.2% and we have been told that as many as 80% of the population could be infected, than assuming the population is 67 million then 80% is 53,600,000 and a mortality rate of 3.2% would mean 1,715,200 deaths... thats a lot more than the quoted figure of 250,000

 

You are forgiven. The true extent of infection is undoubtedly underreported. It is not certain by how much but read the report for the most scientific breakdown of infection rates and worst affected age groups. Furthermore it makes more sense than the press conference!

 

But not everybody is being tested for Covid 19 so there are likely many more people who have it with few if any symptoms therefore that percentage would drop significantly

 

I thought it might be me just being a twat , but the figure of 1% must surely just be a guess then if they have no idea of the true infection level

 

Does it reduce the stench of body odour

 

I think the idea is to use it on your hands matey ..... don't be sniffing it , that would be a waste of a resource in short supply , there's plenty of glue in the shops if you need to sniff something to make you dopey!

 

My country, Norway, closed down before the weekend. Schools, kindergartens, hairdressers, pubs, theatres etc. etc. etc. People are being laid off and those who are not, are encouraged to work from home. There's not been reported any shortage of toilet paper. I read though, that the popular items are paint, wallpaper and sex toys. Not necessarily in that order.

 

Gawdthat is a little penis isn’t it

 

I suppose it would still make them go oooh even if its only oooh what a little one

 

What a fiasco. It's my birthday today, St Paddy's day, and the tele has just told me not to go to the pub.

 

Happy Birthday mate.

 

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Happy birthday mate

 

Happy birthday!