Corona Virus

The regulations are wonderfully vague on such ideas as ‘reasonable’ (a Common law concept with limited application to compliance in criminal matters) and ‘local’ which is pretty elastic. In Hackney the local shop might be 50yds away; in plenty of rural areas very much further.

If they were written by a lawyer they were muttering ‘this is ridiculous’ while they did so.

 

That post is about guidance.

Guidance is not law.

 

Yes, understand that Garethr but the guidelines talk about 'Travel' which is what I have highlighted (being relevant to your post).

 

Section 6d does seem to nail it.
My bikes are purely recreational.

 

You owe it to your mental health......

 

Article in the BMJ entitled: Covid-19: politicisation, “corruption,” and suppression of science

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425

"When good science is suppressed by the medical-political complex, people die"

 

A non-scientific observation:

Did a Blood Bike shift yesterday, and comparing that to ones I did in April the following were obvious:
We are carrying a lot of tests now - we saw hardly any in April.
The A&E next to the pathology lab we deliver to seemed 'normal' - in April the ambulances were queuing up to get in.

Only conclusion I feel confident reaching - we're much more on top of things now

DS

 

And my equally non-scientific observation.
Mrs Marky is a nurse in MAU (medical admissions unit). During April/May they were so quite that they would draw straws as to who could go home early and she caught me having my afternoon nap on a couple of occasions. Thankfully she is busy again and i can now nap in peace.

 

Yes Sweden set a great example of caring for its population.

Deaths per 1m

Sweden 609
Norway 54
Denmark 132
Finland 67

And as to how it’s economy is fairing - it isn’t, It’s in the same shit as the rest of Europe. Well, ok slightly better, but still awful.

 

One thing I don't understand -If herd immunity doesn't work how will a vaccine? Surely both depend on the same mechanism being that the body recognises, remembers and then defeats infection attempts?

The only difference in my understanding would be that, in the case of a vaccine, the virus is dead and so the person doesn't actually get sick at time of 'infection'.

 

But, if catching the virus doesn't then make you immune in future, surely being vaccinated won't either? Yes I can see that, if you don't isolate while you have Covid19, and come into close contact with others you will spread it but the base idea behind herd immunity is the same as that behind vaccination so surely if one doesn't work the other won't either? Do we know how long vaccination protects for and I take it also that, for the small percentage where it's said not to be effective, they will then catch it and may not even know if they happen to be asymptomatic and will continue to spread it possibly even worse than if they hadn't been vaccinated because, they will assume they are 'safe' and may take less precautions in regard of social distancing etc.

 

How do we know that the ones who would die without the vaccine wouldn't also be in the 6-10% who would not be protected by the vaccine? I wouldn't be surprised if those with 'underlying health conditions' would be likely to be the ones who wouldn't benefit from the vaccine as they would most likely have suppressed or impaired immune systems that won't react well to the vaccine and so won't be immunised.

It seems to me that there is every chance that, even with the vaccine, if it's actually proven to really work, it will be the most vulnerable who will benefit the least and they will most likely have to isolate and take precautions indefinitely or take their chances with the virus.

Personally I think the only way we could have headed this virus off at the pass would have been to have had an extremely strict lockdown in the first place - All aircraft grounded, ships refused permission to dock, trains and buses stopped, health staff isolated from the general public and everyone confined to their homes except emergency crews and army personnel to enforce lockdown, who would operate in full NBC equipment for a period of time after a period of grace to allow everyone to get necessary food and medical supplies. Everything everywhere surrounding this virus outbreak seems to have been half-assed and ultimately pointless and, in the process has caused untold damage to many people's livelihoods, physical and mental health.

 

Despite what you see on the main stream media, yes, I believe Sweden are getting it right. Although like everyone else they failed to protect the vulnerable initially, particularly care homes where a lot of deaths occured, but the data seems to me to suggest that they are doing better than most other countries.

So this is the reported cases:



But then look at the testing, which has increased massively since the beginning of the outbreak, and although I could only quickly find data up to October, I think it is safe to assume the the ramp up in testing has continued at the same rate:




Also consider what you would normally expect to see from influenza at this time of year:


And then the figures that really matter:

 

The idea is that if you have 90% effective vaccine and 90% of the country has the vaccine... the 81% of the country would have immunity, which is enough to help protect the truly vulnerable 10%.

The flu vaccine is less effective for the country because less people take it and it’s reportedly around 50% effective anyway, BUT it more likely to protect you from the flu and reduce its effects on you ? And being able to reduce circulation quantities help the country a bit. Others explain it better than me...
https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20200226interimfluve.html

 

The other graph to add to Sweden’s numbers is the annual winter mortality in recent years. The simple truth is that in the two years preceding Covid they had two very mild flu seasons unlike their Nordic neighbours. Those comparisons were being made 6 months ago.

The brutal truth is that the Swedish population had proportionately more frail elderly (called dry tinder by medical statisticians) who succumbed to Covid. The Danes and Norwegians had lost those people in the preceding years to flu etc., completely unremarked.

Some of the ‘gotcha’ stuff barely scrapes the surface of understanding population health dynamics.

 

Interesting that Boris has caught it again.

 

Indeed. Think of the virus as a baton in a relay race. It needs a live body with cells it can invade to transport it. Immunity is someone who is a non-runner. Herd immunity, whether naturally acquired or artificially by vaccination, is the point of balance where you can be confident the baton will get dropped before it gets round the track. It never even completes one lap.

The R rate really describes the same idea just as PCR test ‘cases’ are now mostly people who have had Covid rather than people with Covid (they are likely shedding dead virus particles for weeks/months). The test cannot distinguish as a Portuguese court has just been persuaded.

It is the central bone of contention between SAGE who say these are new infections and the evidence driven side who say they are overwhelmingly old infections plus lab contamination. Hospital admission numbers firmly support the latter view I.e. it is largely over as an epidemic and has become another seasonal endemic virus.

So, if the true measure is hospital admissions of Covid symptomatic patients and subsequent deaths, look also at how many infections arise in already very sick people AFTER they have been admitted for other conditions. It gets conveniently jumbled in the numbers. There is less and less transmission in the community but the fear factory needs to persuade people the vaccine is actually required and complete the political narrative that ‘they’ have saved you so don’t dwell on earlier cock ups.

 

He is in hiding and, frankly, in his video looked and sounded a bit pissed. You can’t be infected twice without making medical history when also allegedly bursting with antibodies.
No, he is lying low over Nut Nut, Cummings and maybe a Brexit sell out.....He is also avoiding his weekly meetings with the Chair of his backbenchers who is trying to tell him time to think about quitting. Ask a Tory if he is leading them into the next election and you get a horrified NO!

 

I wonder if Carrie Symonds being referred to as "Nut Nut" is because she well and truely has got both of Borris' nuts squeezed firmly in her hands

 

The way I hear it she has a firm grip on the lever of power ......