Corona Virus

The impact, both real and imaginary, are being felt ALL over this planet! Right now, the imaginary fears are what concerns me the most.

 

Heh!heh! I feel a ham egg n chips looming!!!

 

Yeah let's get out there before all the cafes are closed!

 

Some friends of mine arrived in
Meribel yesterday for their ski holiday to find all ski runs, most restaurants and bars shut!

 

That ought to keep people from reaching for a handshake at least!

 

Mr. Sandi shared this article with me this morning. I thought it a logical, reasoned response to the current panic that seems to be happening all around us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/...ck&module=Science Technology&pgtype=Homepage

 

And as expected our Prime Minister Mark Rutte has announced that all schools, restaurants, bars etc to be closed from today. This was on the cards after France and Belgium did the same.

 

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9m people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9m people) may require hospitalisation.”

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.

There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.

 

My local pub used to turn people away if they didn't look 21.

Now...if you look over 70, you don't get in.

Beerman

 

Well, the school where I work went from planning to close this coming Wednesday afternoon to closing now. Parents were informed via e-mail and text today (Sunday) that the school is officially closed and to not bring their children to school tomorrow. Our Arizona governor ordered all public and charters schools to close immediately and many of the private schools, mine included, are following suit. So I'm going to work tomorrow but not sure what faculty and staff will be doing exactly. Mostly figuring out how to get kids’ stuff to them that is in their classrooms or lockers and how to carry out instruction in one form or another when kids are at home. We often say we should live day by day. Sometimes things happen that make us live that way.

Changes are happening at warp speed. And I expect that will continue. Just heard that all bars and restaurants and theaters in New York are closed now, too.

 

Normally I hear an odd jet flying over the house, but it’s been completely silent overhead for days.
Crazy days, that’s for sure

 

I must admit I'm taking things a little bit more cautiously. I normally go for a swim three times a week, but today I have not gone. I'm going to wait and see what advice comes out in the next couple of weeks before deciding if I will continue or suspend my swim until things settle down. Am I being a softie? What actions are you guy's either taking or considering?

 

Chlorine kills it - go swimming every day until they close the baths!

 

I was gonna ask around here how those in the higher risk group feel about the government essentially sacrificing people to reduce the economic impact and the impact on the NHS crippled for years by austerities, (by being so slow in response and doing complete the opposite to countries that are already pass the peak,) which is what seems to me is happening here, but looking at some posts here, I found myself again in the "fake news, it's hoax, we've once had an empire and literally won two world wars, we are going to be just fine" department..

Yeah, tell that to those who will loose their loved ones in the coming days, who could otherwise be here for many more years, if people took this shit at least a bit more seriously and followed the basic advice.

I know the opinion is divided on how to best deal with this, but the least the gov can do is to took on some advice from countries that has partially been through this already, or at least learn a lesson how Not to do it..

Carpenter turned up for work on my site this morning, laughing about his wife having symptoms and panicking she has got it (they came back from Saudi Arabia 2 weeks ago), thinking it was really funny and saying even if she was infected, not everyone will get it and that he is self employed and has to go to work. Obviously no sign of mask or any form of protection.
When I asked him how he feels about my assistant George, who is 64 and has an asthma, dying because of him, he just walked away.

People who are panic buying are selfish idiots.
People who are bulk buying and than selling for profit during shortages in a crisis should be made to work in the front line before being used in a fertilizer. They are more of a virus than the Corona will ever be...

It may very well be just a bit of a flue for some of us, but that does not gives us the right to pass it on onto others, who may end up being no 5 in a queue for the last two available ventilators that they need to survive..

 

Good thinking Steve, you old blokes can’t be too careful, it’s not just the pool it’s the changing rooms etc. Keep away from pubs too!

 

But the virus stays around much longer in moist and humid air, again it really comes down to the state of your health and the other people you regularly come into contact with
I am happy going to the gym at work (they have suspended all group sessions and classes) but would probably think twice if I was using the local facilities
Skewed logic maybe but I can live with that

 

The side effect of all this is rather subtle yet significant.
The amount of air travel has not just silenced the skies, but the vapour trails are none existent. I live about 30 miles West of Heathrow and hadn't noticed it until it was mentioned above

 

Your not wrong mate. I might be being a little paranoid, but the public swimming pool environment just seems likely to be a place where the risk of catching it is quite high. I will review over the next few day and weeks and then see whether I will return to my swim.